整合术前营养和炎性的综合指标预测高级别脑胶质瘤预后的列线图模型建立与验证
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1.宜宾市第一人民医院神经外二科;2.宜宾市第一人民医院神经外一科

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四川省卫健委普及科研项目(18PJ541)


Establishment and validation of a nomogram predictive model for the prognosis of advanced gliomas by integrative preoperative nutritional and inflammatory indicators
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Department of No Neurosurgery,The First Peoples’ Hospital of Yibin,Sichuan Yibin

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    摘要:

    目的 利用整合术前营养和炎症的综合指标预测高级别脑胶质瘤预后,并建立列线图模型。 方法 回顾性分析2015~2020年宜宾市第一人民医院收治的高级别脑胶质瘤患者110例,收集患者病历资料并随访至2022年12月30日,采用ROC曲线计算相关联合指标预测患者生存的曲线下面积和最佳截断值,Kaplan-Meier法绘制生存曲线,Log-rank检验和Cox回归分析影响患者预后的可能因素,R语言绘制列线图模型并进行内部(随机抽取80%样本)和外部验证(外部验证数据来源于宜宾市第二人民医院的40例高级别脑胶质瘤患者)。 结果 中位随访时间15个月,平均生存周期11个月,患者6个月和1年生存率分别为84.55%和40.00%。控制营养状态评分(CONUT)、中性粒细胞和淋巴细胞比值(NLR)、血小板和淋巴细胞比值(PLR)与淋巴细胞和单核细胞比值(LMR)预测患者预后的最佳截断值分别为1.5分、2.58、88.33和5.34。Cox回归显示:CONUT评分、GPS评分、NLR、WHO分级和手术方式是高级别脑胶质瘤患者预后的影响因素,其HR(95% CI)分别为0.367(0.187~0.719)、0.666(0.460~0.965)、1.723(1.081~2.747)、0.569(0.372~0.871)、1.904(1.194~3.036)(GPS=1)和3.386(1.841~6.231)(GPS=2)(P<0.05)。列线图模型显示:CONUT评分、GPS评分、NLR、WHO分级和手术方式对应的最高得分分别为75分、100分、53分、80分和88分,以80%原始数据绘制预测生存率的ROC曲线下面积(AUC)为0.922(95% CI:0.901~0.949),Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验发现原始数据组和外部验证组数据吻合度较好(P=0.913和0.871)。 结论 高级别脑胶质瘤预后差,CONUT评分、GPS评分、NLR、WHO分级和手术方式是患者预后的预测因子,基于此建立的列线图模型能很好预测患者生存预后。

    Abstract:

    Objective To explore the correlation between preoperative controlling nutritional status (CONUT) score and related inflammatory indicators and clinical prognosis in patients with high-grade glioma. Methods From January 2015 to December 2020, 110 patients with high-grade glioma admitted to the First People's Hospital of Yibin were reviewed to collect their medical records and follow up until December 30, 2022. Receiver operating characteristic curve was used to explore the area under the curve and the optimal cut-off value of prognostic related indicators to predict the survival of patients. Kaplan-Meier method was used to draw the survival curve. Log-rank test and Cox regression were used to analyze the possible factors of prognosis among patients. Results The median follow-up time was 15 months, and the average survival time was 11 months. The 6-month and 1-year survival rates of patients were 84.55% and 40.00%, respectively. The optimal cut-off value of CONUT score, neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and lymphocyte to monocyte ratio (LMR) were 1.5, 2.58, 88.33 and 4.5, respectively. 7 indicators including WHO grading, surgical procedure, preoperative KPS score, CONUT, NLR, PLR, and LMR, are associated with patient survival time (P<0.05). CONUT score<1.5, NLR<2.58 and total resection are protective factors for the prognosis among patients with glioma , with HR (95% CI) of 0.206(0.093~0.457), 0.521 (0.285~0.951) and 0.558 (0.344~0.905), respectively. WHO grade IV (relative to grade III) and KPS<60 are risk factors for the prognosis of patients, with HR (95% CI) of 1.648 (1.066~2.548) and 2.016 (1.277~3.182), respectively. The 1-year survival rate of glioma patients with CONUT ≥ 1.5 and<1.5 were 26.14% and 92.06%, respectively. The 1-year survival rate of patients with NLR ≥ 2.58 and<2.58 were 27.85% and 70.97%, respectively. The 1-year survival rate of WHO grade III and IV patients were 55.22% and 16.28%, respectively. The 1-year survival rate of total resection and partial resection were 44.44% and 27.59%, respectively. The 1-year survival rate of KPS <60 and ≥60 were 10.00% and 57.14%, respectively. Conclusion The prognosis of patients with high-grade glioma is poor, CONUT score, NLR, WHO grading, surgical methods, and KPS score are related to patient prognosis.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-03-25
  • 最后修改日期:2024-06-19
  • 录用日期:2024-06-24
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