1990-2019年亚洲主要国家中枢神经系统恶性肿瘤疾病负担研究及相关预测
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1.空军军医大学第一附属医院神经外科;2.空军军医大学第一附属医院妇产科

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国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)


Analysis and forecast of burden of brain and central nervous system cancers in Asia countries between 1990 and 2019
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1.Department of Neurosurgery,The First Affiliated Hospital of Air Force Military Medical University,Xi’an;2.Department of Obstetrics and Gynecolog,The First Affiliated Hospital of Air Force Military Medical University,Xi’an

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    摘要:

    目的 分析亚洲主要国家中枢神经系统(CNS)恶性肿瘤的疾病负担,预测中国CNS恶性肿瘤未来流行趋势,为我国CNS恶性肿瘤防控提供参考依据。 方法 基于2019年全球疾病负担研究数据收集全球及亚洲主要国家的CNS恶性肿瘤疾病负担数据,分析年份、社会人口指数对CNS恶性肿瘤发病、患病、残疾调整寿命年(DALYs)、死亡等指标的变化趋势,采用估计年百分比变化(EAPC)及95% CI描述标化率的趋势。分析中国2019年不同性别、年龄组CNS恶性肿瘤疾病负担,采用NORPRED模型预测2020-2044年中国CNS恶性肿瘤发病和死亡情况。结果 1990-2019年,全球CNS恶性肿瘤标化发病率、患病率呈逐年上升趋势。在亚洲主要国家中,日本疾病负担最重,标化发病率、DALYs率和死亡率的EAPC分别为:2.28% (95% CI: 1.94%~2.62%),1.02%(95% CI: 0.87%~1.18%) 和1.46%(95% CI: 1.29%~1.64%),增速超过韩国和中国。1990-2019年,中国CNS恶性肿瘤的标化发病率从4.45/10万上升至5.69/10万,标化患病率从8.15/10万上升至22.58/10万,标化DALYs率从161.29/10万下降至126.24/10万,标化死亡率从3.87/10万下降至3.5/10万。2019年,中国女性CNS恶性肿瘤发病率、患病率高于男性,男性死亡率高于女性,DALYs率两者差别不大。NORDPRED模型预测结果显示,中国CNS恶性肿瘤标化发病率在2020-2044年呈连续上升趋势,预计增长26.65%,标化死亡率将有所下降,预计下降9.14%。结论 相较于韩国和日本,中国CNS恶性肿瘤疾病负担虽有所改善,但在全球仍处于较高水平。85岁以上老年人疾病负担最重,尤其是男性,需重点关注,积极采取相应防控措施。

    Abstract:

    Objective To analyze the disease burden of brain and central nervous system cancer (CNS cancer) in major Asian countries and forecast the future development trend of that in China, which helps to provide reference for the prevention and control of CNS cancer. Methods Data sources for the disease burden of CNS cancer among global and major Asian countries from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019) were extracted to describe burden distribution through the absolute numbers or standardized rates of incidence, prevalence, disability adjusted life years (DALYs) and death by year and social-demographic index (SDI). Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were used to assess the trend of standardized rate. The burden of CNS cancer in China was compared by sex and age groups in 2019, and the NORPRED model was performed to predict the change of the absolute numbers or standardized rates of incidence and death from 2020 to 2044. Results From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and prevalence rate (ASPR) of CNS cancer in the world increased year by year. Among the major Asian countries, Japan has the heaviest disease burden, EAPC of ASIR, age-standardized DALYs rate and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) are 2.28% (95% CI: 1.94%~2.62%), 1.02% (95% CI: 0.87%~1.18%) and 1.46% (95% CI: 1.29%~1.64%) respectively, with the increases exceeding that of Republic of Korea and China. From 1990 to 2019, the ASIR of CNS cancer in China increased from 4.45/100000 to 5.69/100000, the ASPR increased from 8.15/100000 to 22.58/100000, the age-standardized DALYs rate decreased from 161.29/100000 to 126.24/100000, and the ASMR decreased from 3.87/100000 to 3.5/100000. The age-specific incidence rate and prevalence rate of CNS cancer in Chinese women are higher than that in men, and the age-specific mortality rate in men is higher than that in women in 2019, and there is no significant difference in the age-specific DALYs rate. In addition, according to NORDPRED model, ASIR of CNS cancer in China are expected to continue rising between 2000 and 2044, with an estimated increase of 26.65%, and the ASMR are predicted to continue falling, with an estimated decrease of 9.14%. Conclusion Compared to Republic of Korea and Japan, the burden of CNS cancer in China has improved, but it remains at a high level globally. The population aged 85+ is the group with the heaviest burden, it is necessary to pay more attention on male and actively take corresponding prevention and control measures for reducing the disease burden of CNS cancer.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-10-30
  • 最后修改日期:2024-02-06
  • 录用日期:2024-02-07
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