高血压脑出血患者短期预后的影响因素及BAT评分的预测效果分析陈宏尊 陈颖虎南部战区海军第二医院神经外科 海南三亚 572008
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南部战区海军第二医院

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三亚市医疗卫生科技创新项目(编号:2018YW22)


Analysis of the influencing factors of short-term prognosis in hypertensive cerebral hemorrhage patients and the predictive effect of BAT score
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    目的:分析高血压脑出血患者短期预后的影响因素及BAT评分的预测效果。 方法:对2016年1月~2020年12月期间在我院治疗的618例高血压脑出血患者展开研究,将术后28d内死亡的62例患者设为死亡组,其余556例存活的患者设为存活组。分析高血压脑出血患者术后28d内死亡的危险因素,并ROC曲线分析BAT评分对高血压脑出血患者术后28d内死亡的预测价值。 结果:Logistic多因素分析显示,术前24h格拉斯哥昏迷指数(Glasgow coma scale,GCS)评分<6分、BAT评分≥4分、首次电子计算机断层扫描检查(Computed Tomography,CT)距发病时间短、合并术后24h并发症为高血压脑出血患者术后28d内死亡的危险因素(p<0.05)。ROC曲线分析显示,BAT评分预测高血压脑出血患者术后28d内死亡的ROC曲线下面积(AUC)为0.892(p<0.01),95% CI为0.789~0.932,最佳截断值为4分,敏感度为88.29%,特异度为81.43%。 结论:术前24h GCS评分、BAT评分、首次CT距发病时间、术后24h并发症为高血压脑出血患者术后28d内死亡的危险因素,且BAT评分对患者预后有较佳的预测价值。

    Abstract:

    Objective: To analyze the influencing factors of short-term prognosis in patients with hypertensive cerebral hemorrhage and the predictive effect of BAT score. Methods: A total of 618 patients with hypertensive intracerebral hemorrhage treated in our hospital from January 2016 to December 2020 were studied.Sixty-two patients who died within 28 days after surgery were assigned to the death group, and the remaining 556 patients who survived were assigned to the survival group. The risk factors of death within 28 days after surgery in patients with hypertensive intracerebral hemorrhage were analyzed, and the predictive value of BAT score for death within 28 days after surgery in patients with hypertensive intracerebral hemorrhage was analyzed by ROC curve. Results: Logistic multivariate analysis showed that Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score < 6, BAT score ≥4, and Computed Tomography (CT) score at 24h before surgery. The risk factors of death within 28 days after surgery in patients with hypertensive intracerebral hemorrhage (P < 0.05) were short onset time and complication 24h after surgery. ROC curve analysis showed that the area under ROC curve (AUC) for predicting death within 28 days after surgery of hypertensive intracranial hemorrhage by BAT score was 0.892 (P < 0.01), with a 95%CI of 0.789 ~ 0.932. The optimal cut-off value was 4 points, the sensitivity was 88.29%, and the specificity was 81.43%. Conclusions: GCS score 24h before surgery, BAT score, first CT distance to onset, and complications 24h after surgery were risk factors for death within 28d after surgery in patients with hypertensive intracerebral hemorrhage, and BAT score had better prognostic value for patients.

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  • 收稿日期:2022-10-17
  • 最后修改日期:2023-05-30
  • 录用日期:2023-01-30
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